Model probability
Model probability is an estimate produced from available football data. It can include player rates, likely minutes, team style, opponent profile, referee tendencies and market-specific factors.
Probability Guide
Model probability vs implied probability
Model probability and implied probability are two different ways of describing the same question: how likely is this player outcome?
The useful part is comparing them. A model can disagree with the bookmaker market, but that disagreement needs context before it becomes useful.
Implied probability
Implied probability converts bookmaker odds into a percentage. Decimal odds of 2.00 imply roughly 50% before accounting for bookmaker margin.
- Lower odds imply a higher chance.
- Higher odds imply a lower chance.
- Bookmaker margins mean implied probabilities are not perfect neutral estimates.
Why the comparison matters
When the model probability is higher than the implied probability, there may be a positive market discrepancy. When it is lower, the market may be overpricing the outcome.
- The comparison helps users understand price, not just likelihood.
- Confidence and supporting context should still be reviewed.
- One fixture should not be used to judge whether the model is calibrated.
Oddigo Workflow
See both probabilities in one place
Oddigo is built to make the model-versus-market comparison visible rather than hiding it behind a single recommendation.